Ebrahim Raisi’s death likely to impact Iran’s political dynamics, not foreign policy.

Ebrahim Raisi, foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and several other officials were killed in a helicopter crash in Iran’s mountainous northwest. The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi is expected to have significant implications for the country’s internal political dynamics though it isn’t likely to impact Tehran’s foreign policy for the region, people familiar with the matter said on Monday. Raisi, foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and several other officials were killed in a helicopter crash in Iran’s mountainous northwest while travelling from the country’s border with Azerbaijan on Sunday. The development created a vacuum in Iran’s top leadership at a time of heightened tensions with Israel. Since becoming president in 2021, Raisi pushed for stronger ties with India, especially the development of Chabahar Port and New Delhi’s inclusion in the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). Prime Minister Narendra Modi acknowledged Raisi’s contribution to strengthening the India-Iran relationship in a message on X. However, the death of both Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian is not expected to affect Iran’s foreign policy for the region, including relations with India, the people cited above said on condition of anonymity. Iran is expected to maintain continuity in its overall approach towards the region and the countries it perceives as prominent players, such as India and Pakistan, the people said. Since Raisi’s election, Amir-Abdollahian emerged as the main interlocutor for India. He met his Indian counterpart S Jaishankar several times and travelled to India in June 2022. Amir-Abdollahian scrapped a subsequent visit to India in March 2023 to attend the Raisina Dialogue after the inclusion of footage of protests by Iranian women in a promotional video for the event. “Amir-Abdollahian was an energetic interlocutor for India but like Raisi, was not a prominent decision-maker,” one of the people cited above said, referring to the pre-eminent role played by the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) in shaping Iran’s foreign policy, especially for the region. Deepika Saraswat, associate fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), said Raisi’s death is also unlikely to have a fallout on the handling of Iran-Israel tensions as the president doesn’t devise policies and such matters are handled by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Supreme National Security Council.