Exit polls suggest Mahayuti may retain power in Maharashtra, while Jharkhand’s outcome remains uncertain. Votes will be counted on November 23 The Mahayuti is likely to hold an edge over the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in fiercely fought assembly elections in Maharashtra but the scenario in Jharkhand could be more fluid, a clutch of exit polls predicted on Wednesday. In Maharashtra, which voted on Wednesday, most major exit polls predicted that the Mahayuti was on course to retain power and gain a slim majority, defeating the MVA. If this trend holds true, it will mean that the three-party alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has reversed the momentum of the MVA, which won 30 Lok Sabha seats compared to the Mahayuti’s 17. The exit polls were more mixed about Jharkhand, where the two-phase elections are a prestige battle for chief minister Hemant Soren who went to jail on corruption charges last year. Some exit polls predicted that the National Democratic Alliance would win a slim majority but others said that the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha-Congress alliance was headed for a comfortable majority. To be sure, exit polls are not always accurate and have often got the verdict wrong in earlier elections, especially in states with diverse populations, castes and communities. These elections are also a litmus test for pollsters and their methodology since an overwhelming majority of them got the predictions for the Lok Sabha polls as well as Haryana wrong. Stung by the inaccurate forecasts, many pollsters adopted a low-key approach in releasing their data on Wednesday evening, with some even staying away from calling the tough seats.
The votes will be counted on November 23.
The assembly elections not only held an opportunity to rule India’s wealthiest state and one of its most mineral-rich provinces, but also offered a chance to alter national political dynamics. The BJP went into the elections just weeks after pulling off a historic and improbable victory in Haryana while the Congress and its regional allies looked to build on their Lok Sabha performances and stave off infighting and complacency that cost them Haryana. Both states saw chaotic election campaigns. In Maharashtra, both major alliances took weeks to finalise their seat pacts, with hectic negotiations continuing minutes before the deadline. The role of rebels is also expected to be a key factor. Both alliances promised an array of sops and welfare benefits. The western state of Maharashtra that sends the second-highest number of parliamentarians to the Lok Sabha saw a direct battle between two mega alliances – the ruling Mahayuti, comprising the BJP, the Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party, and the Maha Vikas Aghadi, comprising the Congress, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharadchandra Pawar). Also in the fray were a litany of smaller outfits such as the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, the Bahujan Vikas Aghadi, and the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi.
