With both a follow-on and a washout looming large in Brisbane, we examine India’s chances of making the WTC final. India find themselves in trouble, with the Day 3 proceedings at the Gabba opening up two possibilities, both not in favour of the touring side. Australia’s fast bowlers rattled the Indian top-order line-up, reducing them to 4 down for 51 at stumps, with a follow-on looming large. Should they be dismissed for less than 246, it would be the first time in 13 years that India would incur this fate. On the other hand, the recurring wet weather put the brakes on the hosts’ charge, creating a possibility of a drawn result in the third Test match of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy series.
India are currently in a must-win territory as far as their hopes of making the World Test Championship final are concerned. Although they reclaimed the top position in the WTC points table following a record win of 295 runs in the series opener in Perth, a loss in Adelaide, coupled with South Africa claiming a whitewash against Sri Lanka at home, saw them slip to the third spot.
What happens if India lose:
A second consecutive defeat in the series could end India’s chances of making the WTC final for the third straight time. Even if India bounce back to win in Melbourne and Sydney in the last two matches, the most they can amass is 58.8 per cent, while Australia, currently second on the table, can still get to 60.5 per cent, given they whitewash Sri Lanka at home in their final series. This implies a 3-2 result will not be enough for India to make the final independently. They would, hence, need Sri Lanka to pull off a stunner against Australia and Pakistan against South Africa to qualify for the final. If the Islanders can draw at least one game against Australia in the series next month, India will go through, as the Aussies would not be able to cross 57 per cent.
What happens in case of a draw:
With bad weather forecast for the remaining two days in Brisbane, India’s only hope would be to escape the current situation with a draw. But it will do little good for the visitors, who will then have to win in Melbourne and Sydney to make the final. If they lose in either Melbourne or Sydney, resulting in a 2-2 draw in the series, India would need Sri Lanka to beat the Aussie 1-0 in their contest. The result would leave India at 55.3%, while Australia at 53.5 per cent, resulting in a qualification for the final.
