China is not a signatory to international water-sharing treaties and this limits India’s ability to legally restrain Beijing from altering the flow. China greenlit the construction of what is slated to be the world’s largest hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet last December, raising serious alarm bells across the Indian subcontinent.
Officials have expressed apprehensions that the proposed dam would give Beijing significant power to regulate or even divert the flow of the trans-border river, which enters India through Arunachal Pradesh before flowing into Assam and Bangladesh.
Arunachal Pradesh chief minister Pema Khandu warned of the dangers posed by the project, saying, “It is going to cause an existential threat to our tribes and our livelihoods. It is quite serious because China could even use this as a sort of ‘water bomb’.” Dubbed the Great Bend Dam, the 60,000 MW dam will have a power capacity three times that of the massive Three Gorges Dam, also in China.
Why Chinese dam could be a ‘water bomb’ for India
The Yarlung Tsangpo is not just a Tibetan river; as it crosses into India, it becomes the Siang in Arunachal Pradesh, and further downstream in Assam, it merges with tributaries such as the Dibang and Lohit to become the Brahmaputra—a river lifeline for millions in India and Bangladesh. An infrastructure project of this scale in the ecologically fragile Himalayan zone poses multidimensional threats. Indian officials and regional stakeholders fear environmental degradation and a strategic vulnerability that could allow China to manipulate water flow into India.
The potential for weaponising water is not new in geopolitical strategy. A 2020 report by the Lowy Institute, an Australian think tank, warned that Chinese control over rivers originating in Tibet could give it a powerful hold over India’s economy and agriculture. “If the dam is completed, our Siang and Brahmaputra rivers could dry up considerably,” Arunachal CM flagged.
The concern here is not hypothetical. China is not a signatory to international water-sharing treaties. This limits India’s ability to legally restrain Beijing from altering the flow of the transboundary river. Khandu said if China had been a signatory to such agreements, the project might have been beneficial for India.
“Suppose the dam is built and they suddenly release water, our entire Siang belt would be destroyed. In particular, the Adi tribe and similar groups… would see all their property, land, and especially human life, suffer devastating effects,” he explained.
What is India’s counterplan?
In response, India has initiated steps to secure its own water security through the Siang Upper Multipurpose Project—a proposed 10 GW hydropower plant in Arunachal Pradesh, said Prema Khandu. This dam will act both as a power generator and a strategic buffer.
